The Odds Are High: Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the US May Happen Sooner Than Expected
In a recent development, Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck, has expressed optimism about the possibility of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year. According to him, the odds are even higher than what is currently forecasted by popular betting market Polymarket.
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of SOL ETF Listing in 2025
As reported on January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 at around 77%. However, Sigel described this forecast as "underpriced," implying that he believes the actual chances are even higher.
Industry Expectations: A Green Light for Crypto ETF Listings
Sigel’s optimism is not an isolated incident. Industry-wide expectations suggest that more crypto ETF listings in the US may become a reality following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which has sparked hope among industry players.
Prediction Markets: How They Work
For those who are not familiar with prediction markets, they work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. The prices of these contracts fluctuate dynamically based on the expected outcomes. In this case, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2.
Challenges Ahead: Regulatory Hurdles
Despite the optimism, there are still challenges ahead for proposed Solana ETFs seeking regulatory approval in the US. In August, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares had their plans challenged by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
A Solution: Grantor Trust Structure
One potential solution to this issue is for proposed Solana ETFs to conform to a grantor trust structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, and they use an atypical grantor trust structure.
Analysts See Trump’s Win as a Green Light
Industry analysts believe that President-elect Donald Trump’s win is a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high" shortly after Trump’s victory.
Polymarket: A Popular Cryptocurrency Betting Platform
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bullish Bettors: Expectations for 2025
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. With BTC and ETH expected to hit all-time highs, several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US, and more regulatory approvals on the horizon, investors are becoming increasingly optimistic.
The Impact of Trump’s Win: A New Era for Crypto Regulation
President-elect Donald Trump’s win has sent shockwaves throughout the cryptocurrency industry. With his pro-crypto stance, it is expected that the regulatory environment will become more favorable to crypto adoption in the US. This could lead to a surge in new listings and a significant increase in investor confidence.
The Path Forward: Regulatory Approval
While the optimism surrounding Solana ETF listings in the US is palpable, there are still several hurdles to overcome before this becomes a reality. VanEck and 21Shares will need to obtain regulatory approval for their proposed ETFs, which may involve conforming to a grantor trust structure.
Conclusion: The Odds Are High
In conclusion, the odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are higher than ever before. With industry-wide expectations suggesting that more crypto ETF listings will become a reality following President-elect Donald Trump’s win, investors and analysts alike are becoming increasingly optimistic.
Related Articles
- Betting Markets Predict Bullish 2025 for Crypto: A recent article highlighted the predictions of betting markets, which suggest that 2025 will be a bullish year for cryptocurrency.
- Favorable Listing Prospects: Industry analysts believe that the regulatory environment in the US is becoming more favorable to crypto adoption, paving the way for new listings and increased investor confidence.
Sources
- Polymarket: A popular cryptocurrency betting platform with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone.
- VanEck: An asset management company seeking permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.
